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After getting blown out by No. 8 Virginia, Syracuse returns to the Carrier Dome to face North Carolina State on Sunday. The Wolfpack have lost four of their last five games, and Devon Daniels, their leading scorer, was injured in their win against Wake Forest earlier this week.

Bourama Sidibe’s injury will again hurt the Orange if he’s unable to play for the 14th straight game, as Jay Huff muscled his way inside SU’s 2-3 zone and led the Virginia Cavaliers with 21 points and 12 rebounds on Monday. The game was another reminder that, even with Marek Dolezaj at center helping SU on offense, the Orange (9-5, 3-4 Atlantic Coast) still lack a true shot blocker and presence in the middle of their defense.

Here’s what you need to know about the Wolfpack (7-5, 3-4):

All-time series

Syracuse leads, 7-6

Last time they played

After Syracuse lost Elijah Hughes, its leading scorer, to a muscle strain suffered in warmups, the Orange fell to NC State 79-74 and  to 7-6 in ACC play. But in those 37 minutes without Hughes, Joe Girard III had his breakout game as the Orange’s starting point guard, scoring 30 points and setting the Carrier Dome record for points by a freshman in a game. He accomplished this despite hitting just 1-of-10 3-pointers, and despite SU shooting 16.7% from behind the arc. 

In the final minutes, though, SU faltered and failed to take advantage of seven missed free throws by the Wolfpack — not hitting a field goal in the final 3:45 and scoring just four points in that span. Daniels led NC State with 23 points, C.J. Bryce added 19 and they won their third consecutive game against the Orange.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 69% chance to win, with a projected score of 77-72

The Wolfpack report

NC State had lost four consecutive games before defeating Wake Forest on Wednesday, but in that win, it lost Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury. He jump-stopped after driving toward the basketball, and his left knee twisted as he fell. The next day, NC State released the MRI results and announced that Daniels would miss their final 10-plus games. 

Now, the Wolfpack are forced to find a replacement for their leader in points, assists, defensive rebounds and minutes per game. That production could come from D.J. Funderburk, who’s only started four games but has the 42nd-best offensive and 55th-best 2-point field percentage, per KenPom. It could also come from starters Jericole Hellems or Manny Bates, who average 11.8 and 9.0 points per game, respectively. 

When the Wolfpack defeated then-No. 17 North Carolina on Dec. 22 — their best win this season — Bates chipped in 14 points behind Daniels’ 21. The 6-foot-11 sophomore, who also leads the ACC with 3.4 blocks per game, could be a problem for Syracuse to defend at center. 

How Syracuse beats NC State

In past games this season, opponents have found a rebounding edge against the Orange and converted that into additional opportunities on offense through second-chance points. But NC State isn’t as strong of a rebounding team as Pittsburgh, Rutgers or others, and it ranks 305th in defensive rebounding — surrendering an offensive rebound on 32.3% of opportunities, per KenPom. This might be a game where Syracuse can actually establish an advantage on the boards if Dolezaj, Quincy Guerrier and Alan Griffin can contain Bates.

Offensively, Syracuse needs to play with the same approach that worked against Virginia Tech: consistently driving inside and looking to create off the dribble as opposed to settling for 3-pointers. The Orange will need to make more than the four 3-pointers they made against Virginia Tech but fewer than the 16 they hit against Boston College, finding the middle ground that still allows chances for guards to find some rhythm. 

Stat to know: 37.1%

What’s interesting about NC State’s 3-point approach is that it has the 45th-best 3-point percentage in the country, but its 3PA/FGA ranks 263rd. That means the Wolfpack don’t take many 3-pointers, but when they do, they connect at a high rate. Without Daniels, who attempted the most shots from beyond the arc, look for Thomas Allen (44.2%) and Braxton Beverly (41.7%) to become NC State’s primary 3-point shooters on offensive possessions.

Player to watch: Jericole Hellems, Forward, No. 4

With the absence of Daniels, Hellems is the next player lined up to inherit his offensive role. The junior from St. Louis, Missouri has averaged 11.8 points through the Wolfpack’s first 12 games this season and has connected on 39.4% of his 3-pointers. He set his season-high record with 20 points against Boston College on Dec. 30, and he scored 17 points in NC State’s most recent win.

Hellems cracked NC State’s starting lineup last season in 17 games — averaging 9.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game — after coming off the bench as a freshman. And with the Wolfpack without their top scorer, he may take on a larger role in the offense going forward.

Published on January 30, 2021 at 5:52 pm

Contact Andrew: arcrane@syr.edu | @CraneAndrew