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Syracuse pivots back to Atlantic Coast Conference play for the rest of the season when it travels to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina on Tuesday night. It’s the second road conference game for the Orange this season — a blowout win against Boston College was the first — and they narrowly defeated their most recent opponent, Georgetown.

After a game against Clemson was postponed, UNC’s week off before facing Florida State aligned with an opening on SU’s schedule. The Tar Heels have won their past two games, and are one of the best rebounding teams in the ACC.

Here’s what you need to know about the Tar Heels (7-4, 2-2) before Tuesday:

All-time series

North Carolina leads, 13-5

Last time they played

In the final game of the ACC Tournament, before the sports world halted due to the coronavirus, Syracuse cruised past the Tar Heels 81-53. Elijah Hughes, playing his final game for the Orange, led SU with 27 points and seven rebounds, while Bourama Sidibe tallied his fifth double-double of the year (12 points, 13 rebounds).

It was the second-widest margin of victory Syracuse had in conference play last season, and the Orange did so despite only hitting seven 3-pointers. A 10-2 run to open the game and a 15-0 run leading into halftime built a 21-point margin that lasted for nearly all of the second frame. SU advanced to play Louisville the next day, but that game, and the remainder of the conference tournament, was canceled.

KenPom odds

North Carolina has a 62% chance of winning, with a projected score of 73-70.

The Tar Heels report

UNC ranks 148th in minutes continuity from last season, sitting average compared to most teams around the country at 48.2%, but it returned three starters from last year’s underwhelming 14-19 group. Those three players — Garrison Brooks, Leaky Black and Armando Bacot — have helped the Tar Heels jump out to a 7-4 start that includes wins over Kentucky and Stanford. 

They’re an impressive interior team, ranking second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 40.7%, and they also have the 12th-best adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That’s made it difficult for opponents to score this season, with opponents topping 75 points just twice through UNC’s opening 11 games. 

How Syracuse beats North Carolina

With forward depth that’s been hurt due to injuries and quarantining, Syracuse’s ability to win will start with strong games from Quincy Guerrier and Marek Dolezaj inside. North Carolina will repeatedly try to finish offensive possessions inside the arc, and that could get the Orange in foul trouble — like Guerrier has experienced the past two games. But if SU figures out a solution to its shooting struggles on offense, avoids long stretches without stringing together makes and gets hot from beyond the arc, that’ll force the Tar Heels to start taking more 3s of their own. 

Player to watch: Day’Ron Sharpe, Forward/Center, No. 11

Day’Ron Sharpe’s the freshman that’s impressed the most for North Carolina through the first part of the season, complementing Brooks and Bacot in offense and anchoring the Tar Heels on the glass. His 8.3 rebounds per game sit third in the ACC, behind Syracuse’s Guerrier and Pittsburgh’s Justin Champagnie, and he’s third on UNC, with 9.8 points per game.

He scored 25 points in North Carolina’s game against Notre Dame on Jan. 2, the most by a UNC freshman post player since Tyler Hansbrough in 2005, according to an ACC release. His presence inside — both before and after the shot — will pose challenges for Syracuse.

Stat to know: 27.3%

North Carolina doesn’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers, evident by its 27.3% 3PA/FGA that ranks 335th in the country, and it hasn’t made more than nine shots from beyond the arc in a game this season. By comparison, SU’s reached that number in five games. Because of the Tar Heels’ reliance on offense from within the arc, Sharpe (6.1) and Bacot (6.2) both rank in the top 100 nationally for fouls drawn per 40 minutes, per KenPom. If Syracuse’s zone forces UNC to take more 3-pointers than it’s been accustomed to this year, that could work in the Orange’s favor.

Published on January 11, 2021 at 10:27 pm

Contact Andrew: arcrane@syr.edu | @CraneAndrew